How escalation works

A quick guide to the paths of military and diplomatic escalation

With the increasing number of wars in the world, escalation is becoming increasingly common. Recent events like the leadup to the Ukraine War to the most recent India-Pakistan skirmish, means we must start watching more than waiting.

The path leading to escalation of conflict isn’t a sudden surprise event. But it is a cumulative path of missteps, momentum, and velocity that can exceed the ability of players involved.

As the world faces an economic, political, and social changes (its not static), we must start looking:

• How escalation begins

• How escalation progresses

• Political escalation (Horizonal)

• Military escalation (Vertical)

Knowing these will become more important as a multipolar or bipolar world comes starts to become more likely. And its still useful between powers.

The great paradox of escalation is that its most effective practitioners are those who appear most reluctant to use it.